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Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season: Lessons from the 49ers’ victory against the Rams

Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season: Lessons from the 49ers' victory against the Rams

When these NFC West rivals face up on “Monday Night Football,” Week 4 will come to a close for the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. Of course, these two teams have a rich history together. The 49ers and Kyle Shanahan, who Sean McVay worked under in Washington, had Sean McVay’s number for the most of his time in Los Angeles. Prior to last year’s NFC Championship, where the Rams barely won and went on to win Super Bowl LVI, McVay was 3-7 versus Shanahan. Of course there will be some pyrotechnics during this matchup.

Here, we’ll focus on exploring the various betting opportunities that this game presents. We’ll look at a few individual props in addition to the spread and total and make our predictions for how we think this matchup will play out.

Through Caesars Sportsbook, all NFL odds.

How to watch

Monday, October 3, 8:15 p.m. Eastern Time
Specifically, Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara)
ESPN on TV, and fuboTV online (try for free)
Check out the CBS Sports App.
49ers -1.5, Over/Under 42.5

Linear motion

When the schedule was initially made public in the spring, this game was a pick’em. This line increased to 49ers -2.5 as the season progressed, and while San Francisco has maintained its position as the favourite, they are currently laying 1.5 points at home going into this divisional matchup.

The pick: Rams +1.5.This game has been dominated by the 49ers throughout the regular season. In the regular season over the course of his career, Jimmy Garoppolo is an even 6-0 against Los Angeles. Having said that, I’m leaning against the Rams in this game because they might have banished those demons with their NFC Championship victory last year. San Francisco enters this game with an NFL-best 3.9 yards per play allowed to opponents. Although amazing, you can find flaws in it if you consider their schedule and how their games have gone.They faced up against the Bears at Soldier Field during a flood, the Seahawks at home, and a lacklustre Broncos squad headed by Russell Wilson. There might be some kinks that we didn’t necessarily notice throughout the first three weeks because this will be the best offensive that this defence has faced this season. It’s also important to note that in their last seven meetings, the underdog in this head-to-head has gone 7-0 ATS.

Key trend: Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.

Over/Under total

Since it was introduced at 51 in May, the total has decreased quite a little. This number was 47.5 heading into Week 3 and it continued to decline, reaching 44 points last Monday. The current total is 42.5, over 10 points less than when it started.

The pickUnder 42.5.This season, the Niners’ offence has averaged just 15.7 points per game while holding opponents to a league-low 12.3 points per contest. The Rams offence, which typically scores 20.3 points per game, is about league average but hasn’t been as potent as it was a year ago. Given such numbers, it is hardly surprising that the Under is a combined 5-1 this season for these teams.

Key trend: Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in San Francisco.

Matthew Stafford props

Credit By cbssports.com

I predict that this game will be closely contested, which should allow Stafford to throw a lot. He has a 72.5 completion percentage so far this season and has exceeded this completions prop times. Stafford exceeded this total in two of his three games last season versus the Niners, not counting the playoffs. Stafford throwing an interception in this game also isn’t a bad option to consider given the pressure that San Francisco can exert through their pass rush.

Jimmy Garoppolo props

Credit By cbssports.com

Player props to consider

Player props to consider
Jeff Wilson Jr. total rushing yards: Over 54.5 (-133).
Wilson has topped this rushing yard prop in both games he’s started this season and San Francisco should still lean heavily on the running game.

Tyler Higbee total receptions: Over 4.5 (+100). Higbee is the second most-targeted pass catcher in this offense, only looking up to Cooper Kupp. He’s averaging eight targets and 5.3 receptions per game.

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